South Florida Ultra-Luxury Real Estate: 2026 Signals, Risks, and a Buyer’s Strategy
Quick Summary
- $10M+ demand stays active in 2025
- Trophy sales reset price expectations
- Foreign cash buyers support condos
- Valuation risk calls for selectivity
The 2025 to 2026 signal from the top of the market
Ultra-luxury in South Florida often signals its next phase before the broader housing market catches up. In 2025, Miami-Dade recorded 262 closed sales at $10 million and above in the first nine months alone, a meaningful indicator that liquidity at the top stayed consistent, not occasional.
Across the tri-county region, the $10 million-plus pace was projected at roughly 426 sales in 2025, near the 2021 record of 444. For buyers, the takeaway is straightforward: while headlines focus on affordability and interest rates, the prime segment continues to operate as a global asset class with its own demand base and timing.
The drivers are well known, but the weighting has become more defined. Florida’s lack of a state income tax remains central to high-net-worth relocation narratives, reinforcing South Florida’s role as a primary base as much as a discretionary address.
Trophy sales are not just headlines, they are price discovery
When the top of the market trades, it recalibrates expectations below it. Record-setting transactions reported in 2025 show that buyers will still pay exceptional pricing for traits that cannot be duplicated: meaningful waterfront frontage, privacy, and an address that reads instantly to global wealth.
A Star Island mansion at 26 Star Island Drive sold for $120 million in 2025 and was widely reported as a record-setting Miami-Dade sale. In the condo category, Fort Partners sold an oceanfront penthouse at Seaway at The Surf Club in Surfside for $86 million, reported as a Miami-Dade condo price record. Separately, a Port Royal assemblage of three waterfront estates in Naples sold for $225 million and was described as a record-breaking Florida residential sale.
Even for buyers shopping well below those levels, these trades matter. They function as price discovery, validating premiums for true scarcity and influencing how sellers, developers, and appraisers frame the upper tiers.
The quiet pillar: international capital that behaves like equity
International demand remains a defining support for South Florida, particularly in condominiums. Florida attracted about 20% of all international residential real estate buyers in the U.S., the largest share of any state. In South Florida, foreign buyers purchased about $3.1 billion of residential property in 2024.
Two characteristics stand out. First, the demand is broad: foreign buyers in South Florida came from 49 countries, reducing reliance on any single source market. Second, it is cash-forward: about 66% of international buyers paid all-cash, compared with roughly 50% nationally.
Preferences also align with how ultra-luxury is used today. International buyers in South Florida were far more likely to purchase condos (56%) than foreign buyers nationally (23%), and about 64% chose central or urban locations, often tied to convenience and rental motivations. The top origin countries included Argentina (18%), Colombia (14%), Canada (8%), Brazil (6%), and Mexico (6%).
For a luxury buyer, this explains why well-located Miami Beach and Brickell condos can remain liquid even when domestic sentiment softens.
Condos as a long-run holding: resilience, with governance as the filter
Miami-Dade condo prices have posted 14 consecutive years of appreciation, reinforcing an important point: a core condo market backed by global demand can behave like a durable category, not a short-term trade.
At the same time, experienced buyers increasingly treat “the condo market” as two separate universes. One is defined by strong governance, clear reserves, and a building designed for longevity. The other is shaped by deferred maintenance, reactive assessments, and features that age quickly.
For Miami Beach buyers considering a primary or secondary home, the most compelling new and next-generation inventory tends to earn its premium through planning and execution, not novelty. Residences tied to established hospitality and service standards are often evaluated for lock-and-leave ease, including The Ritz-Carlton Residences® Miami Beach, where operational consistency is a key part of the value proposition.
In the same Miami Beach conversation, new luxury supply designed for modern ownership patterns also shapes how buyers think about the neighborhood’s next decade, including projects such as Five Park Miami Beach.
Brickell’s tell: the land is expensive because the narrative is durable
South Florida’s ultra-luxury story is not only coastal. It is also anchored in the urban core, where capital often speaks first through land. Developers closed a $520 million waterfront land deal in Miami’s Brickell area, described as Miami’s largest-ever land deal.
For buyers, that data point is less about headlines and more about math. Rising land costs push replacement cost higher, and that typically compresses the future supply of truly prime product, even when cranes remain visible.
Miami Beach’s ultra-luxury mix: privacy, hospitality, and the new collector mindset
Miami Beach remains a rare hybrid: resort energy, cultural relevance, and true wealth enclave. Many ultra-luxury buyers here behave like collectors, but practical ones. They want discretion, simplified maintenance, and service that is consistent, not performative.
That is why “private collections” style offerings can match how modern owners live across multiple cities. For buyers who want to arrive and immediately step into a fully supported environment, Shore Club Private Collections Miami Beach reflects an ownership preference defined less by square footage and more by time.
Miami Beach also continues to attract buyers who want a residence that functions as a global calling card. In that lane, Setai Residences Miami Beach is frequently discussed as part of the market’s established, internationally legible luxury set.
Strength and risk can coexist: how sophisticated buyers underwrite the cycle
South Florida is experiencing real strength, but it is not insulated from valuation debates. Miami’s housing market was ranked the “riskiest” globally in UBS Global Wealth Management’s 2025 real estate bubble index for the second year in a row, a reminder that prestige and price momentum can outpace fundamentals.
The disciplined approach is not to dismiss the market. It is to underwrite it precisely:
- Scarcity is real, especially for waterfront and iconic addresses, and trophy transactions confirm that scarcity still commands a premium.
- Liquidity is supported by cash-heavy international demand, but that demand can be sensitive to currency moves and geopolitical shifts.
- The best assets are increasingly defined by build quality, governance, and the day-to-day ownership experience.
The opportunity, then, is not “South Florida” as a single bet. It is the right building, on the right block, with a future maintenance story that is credible.
A buyer’s playbook for 2026: precision over volume
For ultra-premium buyers, 2026 strategy looks less like broad expansion and more like intentional concentration.
First, decide which lifestyle you are buying. Miami Beach tends to trade on beach access, culture, and hospitality-adjacent living. Brickell trades on proximity, skyline views, and an urban rhythm. Neither is universally better, but each draws a different resale buyer and carries a different rental profile.
Second, treat the building like an operating company. Ask how the property is maintained, how decisions are made, and whether future capital needs are anticipated or improvised. In a region where condo ownership is central to the international demand story, governance is not a footnote; it is the investment thesis.
Third, pay for what cannot be recreated. Whether it is a protected view corridor, true waterfront positioning, or a service level that makes the home function effortlessly, the most defensible premium is tied to something structurally scarce.
FAQs
What is driving ultra-luxury demand in South Florida? Tax considerations, global lifestyle appeal, and sustained activity at the $10 million-plus tier are widely cited drivers.
Are $10M-plus sales still happening at scale? Yes. Miami-Dade recorded 262 sales above $10 million in the first nine months of 2025.
How close is the market to prior peak years? Tri-county $10 million-plus sales in 2025 were projected around 426, near the 2021 record of 444.
Why do trophy sales matter to buyers below the record tier? They serve as price discovery, validating premiums for true scarcity and influencing comparable expectations.
How important are international buyers to South Florida? Very. Florida drew about 20% of international U.S. residential buyers, and foreign buyers purchased about $3.1B in South Florida in 2024.
Are foreign buyers typically using financing? Many do not. About 66% of international buyers in South Florida bought all-cash.
Do international buyers prefer condos or single-family homes? They skew toward condos in South Florida, with 56% purchasing condos, reflecting lock-and-leave preferences.
Has the Miami-Dade condo market shown long-term price resilience? Yes. Miami-Dade condo prices have recorded 14 consecutive years of appreciation.
Should buyers worry about bubble risk? Valuation risk is part of the conversation. Miami ranked as the “riskiest” globally in UBS’s 2025 bubble index, so selectivity and underwriting matter.
What is one practical way to reduce risk in 2026? Prioritize irreplaceable locations and well-run buildings, and treat governance and reserves as core due diligence.
For tailored guidance on South Florida’s ultra-luxury market, connect with MILLION Luxury.
Million Luxury
Million Luxury
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